Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
Hampir sepuluh tahun tak update blog ni. Sebagaimana emas, tarikan kepadanya tidak pernah pudar cuma masa membataskan keaktifan blog. Saya masih aktif dengan simpanan emas ini, dan saya percaya anda semua juga begitu. Jom tambah simpanan anda terutama anak-anak anda. Mulakan tabungan mereka dengan emas mulai sekarang.
Mula menyimpan emas
Gais,
Walaupun harga emas sekarang mencecah harga tertinggi sejak tahun 2011;
Namun penganalisis berpendapat "kenaikan harga emas baru dalam fasa baru ajer bermula"
Ini bermaksud emas akan berada di dalam trend harga menaik untuk jangka masa panjang (2 tahun keatas).
Kesan pandemik covid-19 menyebabkan ekonomi dunia menguncup, pasaran saham jatuh dan ekonomi US berada dalam situasi tidak menentu. Ia sangat bagus untuk emas.
Kemudian, untuk mengatasi masalah ekonomi yang mengucup, kebanyakan negara-negara di seluruh dunia membuat pakej rangsangan ekonomi dengan nilai billion. US sendiri mencetak duit dengan jumlah 2 trillion.
Kesan cetakan duit ini akan dapat dilihat mulai sekarang. Ia akan meningkatkan inflasi seterusnya menaikkan lagi harga emas.
Jika anda baru bermula. Harap anda boleh tersenyum. Emas mempunyai masa yang masih panjang untuk naik.
Kepada anda yang sedang menyimpan emas. Sila konsisten dan istiqamah.
Sekarang masa untuk emas.
Jika anda baru nak berjinak-jinak dengan emas, maka anda boleh bermula.
#NotaEmasSyukorHashim
Gold in demand despite record price : Saturday, 08 Aug 2020 By SIRA HABIBU
PETALING JAYA: Malaysians are still flocking to jewellery shops despite the price of gold breaching the US$2,000 (RM8,383) per ounce threshold for the first time in global history this week.
Federation of Goldsmiths and Jewellers’ Associations of Malaysia adviser president Ermin Siow said demand had been bolstered by local retailers, who had been careful not to proportionately increase the gold retail price.
He noted the price of gold had increased by more than 35% this year.
“In fact the gross margins have been reduced to as low as 11% to 12% now, instead of the normal 18% to 20%, ” he said.
He said gold jewellery was being sold between RM270 and RM290 per gram as of yesterday.
“Three months ago the retail price was between RM230 and RM240, ” he said.
Siow said there were brisk sales at outlets in Malay majority areas, especially during the Hari Raya Haji period.
“However, shops in urban areas are not doing as well, ” he added.
SMS Deen Group chief executive officer Mohamad Shaifudeen Mohamed Sirajudeen expected the price of gold to increase if the value of the US dollar drops further.
“Gold price and the US dollar are inversely related. When the US dollar weakens the price of gold tends to go up.
“And as the price of gold has breached US$2,000 per ounce, the sky is the limit now, ” he said.
Shaifudeen, however, cautioned people not to resort to panic buying.
He warned drastic increase in price could also result in a price crash, which happened in 2011.
In July 2011, gold price hit an all-time high of US$1,800 per ounce but dipped to US$1,100 per ounce by December 2015.
"Those who bought gold at the peak lost 40% then, but the price appreciated tremendously over the next few years before hitting all-time high this year," he said.
Shaifudeen said he had also experienced selling gold at a loss because of the volatile market.
“My advice is, don’t resort to panic buying, ” he said.
Shaifudeen said people prefer to buy gold as a form of investment.
“Although the market is volatile, the gold price would continue appreciating in the long run, ” he said.
Shaifudeen said the gold export market was adversely affected because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“But thanks to social media, we can continue attracting sales by showcasing trending designs.
“We are now targeting the Malay and Indian markets. As the demand will always be there, especially for weddings.
“Even when the price is high, people are still buying.
“Customers can also enjoy a better return when they trade in old jewellery, purchased at a much lower price years ago, ” he said.
Shaifudeen said the moratorium on loan repayments was also helping drive the retail market.
“People are using the extra money to buy gold, among others.
“It is good for the economy when people continue spending, ” he said.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Why Gold Isn’t $2000 yet…
|
|
|
The
gold price went over $1,900 and looked as though it was going to mount
$2,000, but since then has fallen back to $1,600 and is in the process
of consolidating around the lower $1,600 area. It was expected that it
would have moved a lot higher faster, but that hasn’t happened, yet.
In the face of Italy’s downgrade to A2 by the ratings Agency, Moody’s summary that,
“There
has been a profound loss of confidence in certain European sovereign
debt markets, and Moody’s considers that this extremely weak market
sentiment will likely persist. It is no longer a temporary problem that
might be addressed through liquidity support, and several euro-area
governments are increasingly affected by the loss of confidence.”
The
downgrading was expected as are further downgrades for the different
Eurozone members. Why shouldn’t the gold price be on its way through
$2,000 to higher levels?
The ‘Downturn’
The
news over the last few weeks has sent global financial markets down
heavily as a slow recovery morphed into a downturn and, at best, a flat
economic future in the developed world. These falls have been
accompanied by tremendous worries that there could be a major banking
crisis that will cripple the Eurozone economy as a whole, not just the
debt-distressed nations. In France, growth is now at zero; in Greece
it’s somewhere south of a 5% dip in growth, well into recession. Greater
austerity simply adds to the fall in government revenues, defeating
their purpose of reducing their deficit. All of this implies an ongoing
shrinkage of the Eurozone economy. This hurts investor capacities in all
financial markets and wealth throughout the Eurozone. Cash becomes
“king” as investors flees markets to a holding position, waiting for
much cheaper prices before re-entering markets at lower levels.
The
path to deflation is then made. Deflation in its early stages causes
tremendous de-leveraging. That’s the selling of positions to pay off
loans taken to increase positions. It may come about because of investor
prudence, banks calling in loans, stop-loss triggers and margin calls
(where the level of debt against positions becomes too high and forces
sales). This often (and particularly in the case of precious metals) has
nothing to do with the fundamentals of the market. It’s simply the
position of investors. This happened in the precious metal markets as
well. This is why gold and silver prices fell.
De-leveraging
As
was the case in 2008 and often through history, the process of
de-leveraging is a short-lived one, even when it’s savage. Downward
pressure on prices disappears once an investor has sold the positions.
Leveraged positions are the most vulnerable of investor-held positions
and can make up the froth or ‘surf’ in the markets, which cause the
volatility levels to increase when drama strikes. In 2008, these
positions were huge because there had been two and a half decades of
burgeoning markets that encouraged greater risk-taking. Since then,
while leveraging has taken place, it has been less and rapidly removed
when dramas hit.
In
2008 we saw a similar drop in prices from $1,200 to $1,000 [20%], which
equates to the fall from $1,910 to $1,590 [16.9%]. In 2008, the
precious metal prices then slowly rose as buyers started to come in from
all over the world. It took over a year for prices to recover back to
$1,200.
Change in Market Structure
Today
the shape of the precious metal markets is quite different and
particularly that of gold. In 2008, central banks were sellers; today
they are buyers. In 2008, the Chinese gold markets were small. Since
then they’ve grown to such an extent that they’re soon to overtake
India. These are two dynamic features that give demand a totally
different shape to 2008. More than that, the impact of the developed
world, long-term, has diminished quite considerably. It now represents
less than 21% of jewelry, bar, and coin demand. The emerging world, as a
whole, represents over 70% of such demand now.
The
bulk of the world’s physical gold that comes to the market is dealt at
the London twice daily Fixings. The balance that’s traded outside the
Fixings is the most short-term price influential amounts, producing the
swings that resemble the waves on the seashore. It’s these traders and
speculators that often persuade long-term buyers to stand back and wait
for the prices to swing to the point that persuades them to enter the
market. The drop from $1,900 had this effect on investors. Now that the
fall has happened, we see a surge in demand from the emerging world to
pick up the slack in the market. We’ve no doubt that central banks are buying the dips as well.
So
once the selling from the developed world has stopped (emerging market
demand waits for this before buying, allowing the fall to extend
further) in come the buyers happy that they’re entering the market at a
good time. Because of this change in market shape, expect the market to
take far less time to find its balance and allow demand to dominate.
2012 Recession Battle
The
I.M.F. has just warned that the developed world will enter a recession
in 2012. Will that be negative for the gold market? We don’t think so.
The world has seen the recovery peter out, the sovereign debt crisis
arrive, and now sees the I.M.F. recommend that the Eurozone banks be
recapitalized. What does this mean for precious metals?
Cast you minds back to the recapitalization of U.S. banks under the TARP measures whereby the Fed bought the toxic debt investments of the banks against fresh
money. When we say fresh we mean just that, newly created money in the
trillions. This did lower the perceived value of the dollar inside and
outside the U.S. The effect on gold was palpable as it rose back through
$1,200 and onto new highs.
Already
we’re hearing rumors of an E.U. government minister’s plan to walk the
same or similar road. With the recent past in mind, we’re certain that
will lower the perceived value of the euro and see euro investors seek
places to cling onto the value of the euro. This time round, expect
markets to discount these actions in the same way. The downturn will
therefore be fought with new money creation in the same way the U.S. did
it from 2008 on.
Source: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1317844522.php
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Gold's volatility makes a long term focus more important
|
|
|
|
While prices
have fallen significantly in recent weeks and volatility continues to
rise, David Levenstein looks at what has actually changed, if anything
Author: David LevensteinPosted: Tuesday , 04 Oct 2011
JOHANNESBURG -
As events are constantly changing, sometimes on an hourly
basis, it is difficult to keep abreast with the latest issues. The
price of gold can change in an instant, and some of the moves can be
substantial. Many of these price changes are becoming a daily
occurrence. One day the price is down $50 an ounce and then before you
know it, it is back up.
During this phase of volatility, it is important to keep focused on
the bigger long-term picture and remind yourself why you own gold
bullion. One of the main reasons we invest in precious metals, in
particular gold and silver is that they are an alternative to fiat
money. If you believe as I do that the global monetary system is
looking precarious and if you have doubts about the solutions suggested
by our financial leaders, then it is essential to have a portion of your
investment portfolio in gold and silver. Nothing has improved regarding
the deteriorating state of our global monetary system, and while the
current demand for US dollars is pushing the greenback higher, this
cannot be sustained.
In last three weeks the US dollar has gained approximately 7% as
measured by the Dollar Index, and during the same time the price of gold
has dropped 16%. The reason for this sudden rise of the dollar can be
attributed to a move out of global equities, commodities and certain
currencies in particular the euro and into the perceived safety of the
US dollar. I use the term "perceived safety" because in the long-term
there is nothing safe about the US dollar.
As investors panicked when the prices of many assets plunged they
simply sold everything, even assets that have medium to long-term growth
opportunities. The recent selling of gold was related to panic from
hedge funds needing to raise money for redemptions as well as a
tightening of margin requirements. This was not selling pressure based
on any fundamental change in the global gold market. And, it is
important to realise that at times, price discovery has little to do
with supply and demand, and has much to do with speculative trades as
those transacted on the futures markets, in particular Comex.
Practically the all the trades on Comex are merely leveraged "paper"
trades in gold and only a very small percent of all deals ever end in
physical delivery. And, due to the nature of leverage, the volumes can
be massive but totally unrelated to the real supply and demand equation.
Nevertheless, as the physical spot market and the futures market are
linked to each other, the futures market can have a huge impact on the
prices in the spot market. Personally, I believe that the sell-off in
these futures contracts had a lot to do with the recent price fall in
gold.
When the gold price plummeted on September 23, at one time the price
of spot gold was down by $122 an ounce from the daily high of $1750 an
ounce. When the US session on Comex closed, spot gold was down $79/oz on
the day at $1657/oz. But, what was interesting was the volumes traded
on Comex. They were enormous; around 340,000 contracts...roughly
equivalent to 25% of the annual production output in one session! None
of these contracts will result in delivery and yet these paper trades
can have a significant impact on prices. Once the speculative interest
has waned and investors realise that the current global monetary crisis
is not any better than it was a few weeks ago, I bet that we will see a
resurgence of demand for the yellow metal.
We are experiencing the results of half a century of debt-fuelled
"growth" that is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Banks grew
so big that their collapse would have brought down the entire global
economy. To prevent this, they were bailed out with huge tranches of
public money, which in turn is precipitating social crises on the
streets of western nations. The European Union has grown so big, and so
unaccountable, that it threatens to collapse in on itself. Corporations
have grown so big that they are overwhelming democracies and building a
global plutocracy to serve their own interests. But now with the
Eurozone debt crisis, US debt, currency wars, poor economic growth, high
unemployment, the global monetary system looks increasingly precarious.
While the Eurozone sets up an amicable separation from Greece, the euro
remains under pressure resulting in a stronger dollar.
Greece will run out of money to pay salaries and pensions next month
unless it receives the next €8bn installment of emergency loans.
European officials are scrambling to avert a Greek debt default, which
could wreck balance sheets of European banks, send the euro lower and
possibly plunge the world into a new global financial crisis.
Then today, Monday October 03, 2011 the Greek government said it
won't meet its deficit target this year and agreed to additional
austerity measures demanded by international lenders ahead of a meeting
of Eurozone finance ministers. Greece's 2011 deficit is now expected to
be 8.5% of gross domestic product, falling short of a target of 7.6%.
The deficit will be reduced to 6.8% of GDP in 2012, but still short of
the 6.5% target.
The Greek finance ministry said the targets will be missed because
the nation is suffering a much deeper-than-projected recession. The
economy is now expected to contract 5.5% in 2011 compared to the 3.8%
contraction projected in June. The news increases the possibility of a
delay of the next tranche of bailout funds. It also spooked investors
who rushed to sell shares Monday in Asia and Europe.
Frankly, we all know that the situation in Greece is dire and that
they have no hope to pay back any of these loans. I believe that despite
the political rhetoric of government leaders, the leaders of the
Eurozone are setting up for an "orderly" default by Greece due to the
impossibility of Greece being able to service an ever expanding debt
mountain. While their package will protect the banks from collapsing, it
will also necessitate the monetization of the debts of the PIIGS
meaning very simply printing more money. As the value of the euro
declines, individuals will look to preserve their savings and turn to
gold.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are beginning to consolidate above $1600 level after the
recent drop. I believe that this period of consolidation will not take
more than a few weeks.
Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=136820&sn=Detail&pid=102055
What does 15 Trillion looks like?
|
|
|
|
Source: http://www.sgtraderclub.com/2011/08/what-does-15-trillion-looks-like.html
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)